Estimating sea level rise around Australia using a new approach to account for low frequency climate signals

Regional sea level studies help to identify the vulnerable areas to the sea level rise. This study investigates the impact of climate modes on sea level variations and trends around Australia using altimetry data, climate indices, and sea level records from tide gauge stations. Here, we show that the sea level variations are negatively correlated with climate indices to the north and west of Australia. The spectral analyses of the climate indices and tide gauge data suggest that a low frequency signal with a period of 11 years emerges during the mid 1980s. Since the 25-year length of the satellite altimetry record is yet too short to detect low frequency signals, their effect on the estimation of regional sea level trend is unknown. Therefore, we estimate the sea level trend with consideration of this signal and using a two-step method. All signals with periods shorter than 7.5 years are first removed from sea level time series and then the trend is estimated using the parametric model that includes the 11-year signal. The skill of the parametric model in explaining the variations in sea level anomaly validates the presence of the 11-year signal detected in the spectrograms of the tide gauge data and climate indices. The average sea level trend for the study area is estimated as 3.85 ± 0.15 mm/year.     

计及频率变化的感应电动机负荷特性分析

对于异步联网系统中网架结构比较薄弱的省网系统或者系统解列后形成的孤岛,发生故障时会引起比较大的频率波动,在此情况下对感应电动机进行建模时考虑其频率特性尤为重要。基于感应电动机一阶机械暂态模型,利用解析法分别推导出不同负载特性下稳态及动态转差率关于系统频率的表达式,并在此基础上计算吸收的有功功率和无功功率,进而分析感应电动机的功率频率特性。在MATLAB中建立感应电动机五阶电磁暂态仿真模型,仿真分析不同负载特性感应电动机的功率频率特性。仿真结果与理论推导结果吻合,验证了在简化模型下推导得到的感应电动机频率特性解析式的正确性和有效性。     

空气动力二阶核函数辨识方法

采用截断三阶Volterra级数模型来研究空气动力二阶核函数的辨识问题,选取一簇正交化的切比雪夫多项式对二阶核函数进行参数化处理,并将非参数辨识问题转化成参数辨识问题。相比于其他方法,本文模型能有效降低对激励信号幅值的敏感程度,保证辨识出的核函数具有较好的保真度;只针对三阶Volterra降阶模型中的一阶、二阶核函数进行辨识,即可提升原系统一阶、二阶核函数的辨识精度,却不会显著增加辨识过程的工作量;参数化辨识方法属于整体性辨识,根据已有的部分数据对(输入、输出数据)就能完成系统辨识,且能达到较好的辨识精度,从而有效地减少了执行计算流体力学(CFD)代码程序的总次数,节约了大量的时间成本。算例表明,与目前流行的非参数化方法相比,本文提出的切比雪夫函数辨识方法,精度上达到预期要求,辨识过程消耗的CFD总时间量至少可降低一个数量级。     

叶片掠对跨声转子进口流动的影响

选择NASA Rotor 37跨声转子作为原型叶片,在叶片90%展高以上通过移动叶型基元的弦向位置构造叶尖掠特征,共有包括原型转子、2个前掠转子和2个后掠转子等5种不同叶型几何的算例.利用数值模拟软件计算得到5种转子的总体特性并获得三维流场.结果表明:叶尖前掠减小了叶片尖部进口的平均攻角,而后掠则使攻角增大.引入周向平均无黏动量方程,计算出由周向平均所产生的周向不均匀源项及径向平衡方程的各项数值,并对比其在5个转子进口的分布规律及其与攻角变化之间的关联.通过改变进口的流动平衡,叶尖前掠使轴向速度增大、周向速度减小,进而使得攻角减小;后掠则在叶尖起到了相反的效应.采用这种准三维方法研究了叶片掠对叶片进口流场的影响.      

Tide variation monitoring based improved GNSS-MR by empirical mode decomposition

Global Navigation Satellite System multipath reflectometry (GNSS-MR) technology has great potential for monitoring tide level changes. GNSS-MR techniques usually extract signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) residual sequences using quadratic polynomials; however, such algorithms are affected considerably by satellite elevation angles. To improve the stability and accuracy of an SNR residual sequence, this study proposed an SNR signal decomposition method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD). First, the SNR signal is decomposed by EMD, following which the SNR residual sequence is obtained by combining the corresponding intrinsic mode function with the frequency range of the coherent signal. Second, the Lomb–Scargle spectrum is analyzed to obtain the frequency of the SNR residual sequence. Finally, the SNR frequency is converted into the tide height. To verify the validity of the SNR residual sequence obtained by EMD, the algorithm performance was assessed using multigroup satellite elevation angle intervals with measured data from two station, SC02 in the United States and RSBY in Australia. Experimental results demonstrated that the accuracy of the improved algorithm was improved in the low-elevation range. The improved algorithm demonstrated high monitoring accuracy, and the effective number was not less than 80% of the total in SC02, which means it could effectively describe the trend of the tide with accuracy of approximately 10 cm, meanwhile, the RMS error of RSBY could be reduced by 30 cm, to the maximum extent. The EMD method effectively expands the range of available GNSS-MR elevations, avoids the loss of effective information, enhances considerably the utilization rate of GNSS data, and improves the accuracy of GNSS-MR tide level monitoring.     

Effects of sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field on the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere dynamics

In this paper we study the influence of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity changes caused by the Earth passing through the IMF sector boundary on the dynamic processes taking place in neutral atmosphere within the altitude interval of the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere (83–101 km). The analysis has revealed the influence of the IMF sector structure on dynamics of the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere. There has been a significant seasonal variation of the wind reaction to the IMF polarity changes observed. The influence of the IMF polarity changes on neutral atmosphere dynamics within the altitude range of 83–101 km is most pronounced in the zonal component of neural wind when the IMF polarity changes from negative to positive in all the seasons except for spring and when IMF polarity changes from positive to negative – in spring only.     

Dependence of the 27-day variation of cosmic rays on the global magnetic field of the Sun

We show that the higher range of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of the solar wind speed in the positive polarity period (A > 0) than in the negative polarity period (A < 0) is one of the important reasons of the larger amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the period of 1995–1997 (A > 0) than in 1985–1987 (A < 0). Subsequently, different ranges of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of the solar wind speed jointly with equally important corresponding drift effect are general causes of the polarity dependence of the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity. At the same time, we show that the polarity dependence is feeble for the last unusual minimum epoch of solar activity 2007–2009 (A < 0); the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity shows only a tendency of the polarity dependence. We present a three dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of GCR based on the Parker’s transport equation. In the 3-D model is implemented a longitudinal variation of the solar wind speed reproducing in situ measurements and corresponding divergence-free interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) derived from the Maxwell’s equations. We show that results of the proposed 3-D modeling of the 27-day variation of GCR intensity for different polarities of the solar magnetic cycle are in good agreement with the neutron monitors experimental data. To reach a compatibility of the theoretical modeling with observations for the last minimum epoch of solar activity 2007–2009 (A < 0) a parallel diffusion coefficient was increased by ∼40%.     

Study of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy

We demonstrate that the general features of the radial and azimuthal components of the anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays can be studied by the harmonic analysis method using data from an individual neutron monitor with cut off rigidity <5 GV. In particular, we study the characteristics of the 27-day (solar rotation period) variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy, solar wind velocity, interplanetary magnetic field strength and sunspot number. The amplitudes of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy are greater, and the phases more clearly established, in A > 0 polarity periods than in A < 0 polarity periods at times of minimum solar activity. The phases of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity and anisotropy are opposite with respect to the similar changes of the solar wind velocity in A > 0 polarity periods. No significant dependence of the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy on the tilt angle of the heliospheric neutral sheet is found. Daily epicyclegrams obtained by Chree’s method show that the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy during A > 0 polarity periods follow elliptical paths with the major axes oriented approximately along the interplanetary magnetic field. The paths are more irregular during A < 0 polarity periods.     

Characteristics of the seasonal variation of the global tropopause revealed by COSMIC/GPS data

Using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation observations from Formosa Satellite mission-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) from 2007 to 2012, the climatological characteristics of the global tropopause was studied, with the following features identified. The overall results generally agree with previous studies. The tropopause has an obvious zonal structure, with more zonal characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere. The vertical shape of the tropopause is sharp in the tropics and broad in the sub-tropical latitudes, with the sharpest latitudinal gradient in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres. The global tropopause exists in a large range between 8 km and 17 km (or between 100 hPa and 340 hPa). The highest tropopause is over the South Asian monsoon regions for the entire year. The spatial structure of the tropopause in the polar region is of concentric structure, with an altitude between 7.5 km and 10 km. It is more symmetric in the Antarctic than the Arctic. Differing from other places, the height of the tropopause in the Antarctic is higher in winter as opposed to summer. The tropopause has distinct seasonal variability, especially in polar regions.     

复合材料层合板下陷区结构设计

复合材料层合板下陷是飞机结构中应用广泛的典型结构细节。以下陷长深比、相同方向下陷区间距、两个不同方向下陷区间距为下陷区设计变量,建立参数化有限元模型;通过下陷应力应变分布、初始失效和最终承载能力分析,确定各设计变量对下陷区结构力学性能的影响,并进行参数化设计。分析结果表明:下陷区结构最先发生损伤的部位为下陷区转折处;合理的下陷参数设计变量取值为长深比B/A≥20、主受力方向上两个下陷区间距A/H≥12、不同方向上两个下陷区间距C/A_(min)≥1.5。